The NBU forecasts that the trend will change starting in 2026, with approximately 200,000 people expected to return to Ukraine. By 2027, this number could increase to 500,000.
The NBU notes a decline in the proportion of individuals interested in returning, largely due to the growing adaptation of Ukrainians abroad. As a result, a large-scale and rapid return of migrants seems unlikely, especially if current conditions persist.
This ongoing migration trend is likely to contribute to a labor shortage, which will continue to create imbalances in the job market. Consequently, wages are expected to rise at a faster pace than productivity in certain sectors, leading to increased inflationary pressure.
However, the NBU believes that the return of Ukrainians from abroad could accelerate if there is a shift in the policies of host countries and a change in the Ukrainian government's approach to encouraging the return of refugees.
Let us remind you, major scrutiny and control of Ukrainians abroad: refugees are left without payments and assistance
Earlier, "hyser" reported, new strict control of Ukrainians abroad: refugees will be left in despair
As reported by "hyser", major deportation from abroad: millions of refugees will be left behind