President's advisor Alexander Kamyshin proposed a pilot project aimed at facilitating the return of Ukrainians from Germany, particularly those who can contribute to the defense industry, as reported by "TSN".
Indeed, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal expressed hope during his visit to Berlin that Ukrainians seeking asylum in Germany would return to Ukraine. However, these statements have sparked strong emotions and widespread misinformation regarding the future of Ukrainian men in the EU.
In many online discussions, especially on social media platforms like Facebook and Telegram, concerns have dominated about whether Germany will deport Ukrainian men of conscription age. Despite these fears, Ukrainian men, as well as women and children, are entitled to temporary protection in Germany under EU Directive 2001/55/EC, which provides humanitarian protection in emergencies.
Specifically, Ukrainian citizens are under temporary protection in Germany according to Section 24. This protection is effective at least until March 2026, and there are no immediate legal grounds for its revocation, even in the face of political pressure or misinformation campaigns.
The largest immigrant rights organization in Germany, Pro Asyl, reported receiving inquiries from Ukrainian men who are concerned about the temporary nature of their stay and the potential consequences of returning to Ukraine, including fears of punishment for evading military service.
Nevertheless, Pro Asyl assures that the right to stay under temporary protection cannot be easily revoked, and returning to Ukraine will not lead to automatic deportation.
Temporary protection is considered a safer option than seeking asylum, which comes with stricter conditions, including a work ban for several months and mandatory residence in refugee shelters.
Moreover, the chances of successfully obtaining asylum in Germany are relatively low, with a significant portion of asylum applications from Ukrainians being rejected. According to the latest data, the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) processed 1,399 asylum applications from Ukrainians, with only about 7% resulting in positive decisions.
The issue of deportation, which concerns many, is also clarified by legal experts. EU countries, including Germany, adhere to the principle of non-refoulement, which prohibits the deportation of refugees to war-torn countries like Ukraine. Deportation can only occur in cases involving national security, public order, or other serious legal violations. However, experts emphasize that such measures would require a legal process ensuring the protection of refugees' rights.
In addition to concerns about deportation, Ukrainian men of conscription age living abroad for more than three months are required to register with Ukrainian consulates to maintain their military obligations. However, this does not mean they will be automatically deported from host countries. Embassies and consulates are required to inform citizens about their conscription status but do not have the authority to issue summons or enforce deportation orders.
The Geneva Convention on the Status of Refugees, ratified by Germany and other European countries, prohibits the forced expulsion of refugees unless there are significant threats to national security or public order.
Therefore, no EU member state or other country adhering to international agreements will violate the rights of Ukrainian refugees by forcibly deporting them. Refugees granted protection status are considered legally residing in host countries, and their rights to remain are protected as long as Ukraine remains in a state of war.
While no EU country currently considers forced return of refugees, ongoing discussions are taking place regarding voluntary return programs. However, experts agree that key factors influencing refugees’ decisions to return to Ukraine are safety and economic conditions.
Many Ukrainians are unlikely to return while the war continues in Ukraine and stable living conditions, such as housing and employment opportunities, are absent. Furthermore, some Ukrainians have successfully integrated into host countries by learning the language and securing jobs, meaning they are now part of the communities where they have settled.
Particular attention should be given to the situation of young Ukrainians who have quickly adapted to life abroad. Countries such as Switzerland, Austria, Germany, and France have invested significant resources in Ukrainian youth by providing educational and employment opportunities.
These investments are viewed as part of broader efforts to secure the future of Ukrainian youth, who are often seen as a valuable demographic group. This focus on youth, combined with broader social and economic integration of refugees, suggests that some Ukrainians may envision their future beyond Ukraine, especially if the war continues for an extended period.
Looking ahead, the future of Ukrainian refugees after 2026 remains uncertain. Experts propose several potential scenarios for those who decide to stay in Germany.
One possibility is that EU countries may decide to extend temporary protection if the situation in Ukraine remains dire. Alternatively, individual countries could implement their own national protection or residence programs for Ukrainians.
In some cases, long-term residence and integration in host countries may lead to opportunities for permanent residency or other forms of protection, although the conditions for such status vary by country.