Vitaly Portnikov: I see no signs of a war freeze or ceasefire in the coming years.
On the preconditions for the onset of a third world war and the risk of nuclear weapon use, the strengthening of the "axis of evil" comprising China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, the lack of consensus in Ukraine regarding survival strategies, resistance, or capitulation, as well as scenarios for ending the Russian-Ukrainian war – political analyst and TV host Vitaliy Portnikov discussed these topics in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.
CONTENT
- When do world wars begin?
- Is a world war possible without the involvement of the USA and China?
- Why can Israel be audacious while Ukraine cannot?
- Can the USA afford Ukraine's defeat?
- Two scenarios: a ceasefire or ongoing war in Ukraine
On the eve of the "sacred date" – November 5, when the presidential elections will take place in the USA, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin announces the training of nuclear deterrence forces with practical launches of cruise and ballistic missiles, North Korean troops are "settling in" on Russian territory to participate in the war against Ukraine, the head of China calls on his army to prepare for war, and Iran promises to use "all available tools" to respond to an attack from Israel. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of symbolic and practical gestures from the "axis of evil" and the collective West, Ukraine continues its fight for independence.
Does the likelihood of global escalation indeed depend directly on the outcomes of the war in Ukraine? Or conversely, given the nuclear status of certain states, is the war in Ukraine the highest level of global confrontation in the 21st century?
In a conversation with RBC-Ukraine, Vitaliy Portnikov elaborated on the preconditions for the start of world wars and the probability of nuclear weapon use, whether it is possible to avoid direct military confrontation between the USA and China, the formation of the "axis of evil" consisting of China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, and primarily about realistic scenarios for ending the Russian-Ukrainian war and what our victory would actually look like.
The full version of the conversation with Vitaliy Portnikov can be watched in the video; below are selected quotes from the publicist in text format.
When do world wars begin?
For different countries, World War II began at different moments. For Poland, it was one moment; for the Soviet Union, another; for part of Ukraine, it began in September 1939, and for another part, in June 1941. When in September 1939 the Hitler forces attacked Poland, no one said, "Listen, a world war has begun." If you look at the press of those years, everyone simply noted the fact that the Hitler forces attacked Poland while Stalin sent his troops into its territory a few days after the German attack.
Before that, there was Czechoslovakia, and no one said it was World War II. Before that, there was Austria, and no one said it was World War II. After Poland, there were other European countries, France fell, and it was only a few years after all this actually began that such a historical term appeared. By analogy with World War I, which, as you understand, was not immediately called the First.
Can the Third World War end in the regions?
The previous great wars occurred at times when humanity did not fear total destruction. Current wars are taking place under new conditions. No one in the West wants to test who will go for what. And this is a problem for the West. It may also be a problem for Russia.
Additionally, we need to understand two possibilities: the use of nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state and a nuclear exchange between nuclear states or blocs. These are different things. Here we step onto the path of the unknown. I do not know if Putin is ready to use a nuclear bomb, but I start from the assumption that Putin is capable of anything. From the fact that he can destroy any red lines.
The place of Russia in the "axis of evil" and the relations between Moscow and Beijing
Russia is undoubtedly economically dependent on China. But that does not mean that China dictates anything to Moscow. China needs to maintain normal relations with Russia so that it does not suddenly slip out of its influence and switch to the side of the West. Imagine Putin and Xi Jinping on the eve of a full-scale war of Russia against Ukraine. Does Putin tell Xi what he is planning to do? Probably not.
But does he need to say something to him? And he might say something like, "You know, I am going to restore order and ensure peace in the regions currently under our control. This will be a short operation that should help Ukraine return to a constructive dialogue with Russia while ensuring the safety of the residents of those eastern territories who wish for independence and good relations with our Ukraine." Does Xi Jinping conclude from this that a war will start?
What unites the countries of the "axis of evil," and is it easy to break this alliance?
They are united by the values of authoritarianism: "No one can dictate to us how to live. No one can force us to create independent media. No one can compel us to allow real market freedom." All these regimes exist only because they are outside competition. They have ensured such conditions for themselves. Imagine if independent press, various political parties, and different proposals appeared in such countries. That would be self-destruction.
Yes, there are autocratic regimes that cooperate with the West. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey. But have you ever read the media of the United Arab Emirates? The level of awareness in such societies is quite high; the society simply agrees that such a regime exists in the country. In Turkey, with its political struggle, opposition mayors lead the largest cities. In Pakistan, there are different political forces. The UAE or Saudi Arabia, perceived as autocratic monarchies, exist in symbiosis with society. When you are there, you are in the real world. The problem is that when you are in Iran, China, or North Korea, you are in an unclear place, in a completely distorted world.
Is a world war possible without the involvement of the USA and China?
If the USA and China refrain from participation, there will only be regional conflicts, where each of these countries supports someone. This is already happening. In the Russian-Ukrainian war, China helps Russia not to collapse and continue the war, while the USA helps Ukraine not to fall.
But they are not participating. A world war, fundamentally, is a war in which the Russian Federation delivers a strategic nuclear strike on Washington, while China, for example, targets some US fleet in the Pacific.
Scenario of global reformatting of the world as a result of Ukraine's defeat in the war
The war continues in a sluggish manner. Everyone understands that the level of support for Russia depends on China, and if China stops supporting it, Russia will refrain from any aggressive actions in the future. This is a bipolar world, where the USA tries to communicate with China, while China controls Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Ukraine disappears from the political map of the world or becomes a satellite state of the Russian Federation with limited borders, as was considered in Russia in 2022.
The West fails to protect Ukraine. Russia, either with its own troops or with those of a puppet regime, advances to Uzhgorod. Russia becomes the political hegemon of Europe. The world is no longer bipolar. The West tries to talk to Moscow about Europe, and more pro-Russian politicians appear in European countries. In the Asia-Pacific direction, India tries to weaken China's influence. Thus, a multipolar world is created.
Scenario of global reformatting of the world with Ukraine preserved after the war
Ukraine remains at least on part of its territory, and for the majority, it is accepted into NATO and the European Union. Yes, this currently seems like an extremely unlikely scenario. In this case, Russia and China find themselves unable to prove their ability to restrict the sovereignty of certain countries, while the West demonstrates its ability to protect the right of countries wishing to be part of the West to make free choices.
The world becomes unipolar. This means strengthening the strategic partnership between India and the USA and diminishing China's influence. China hesitates to attack Taiwan. In the next presidential elections in the Maldives or Sri Lanka, the current pro-China presidents will lose, and pro-India candidates will win. This indicates a very significant shift towards the civilized world.
How nuclear weapons deter the USA and China and how long will it last?
China may not want to go to war with a nuclear state. Even if it obtains its nuclear triad, the US nuclear