Indian expert Swasti Rao: The U.S. is a far more significant partner for India than Russia.

Why does India continue to purchase Russian oil, is it willing to act as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia, how does Russian propaganda operate in India and what influence does it have, and how can Ukraine reach out to the Indian populace? These topics were discussed in an interview with Swasti Rao, a research fellow at the Center for Europe and Eurasia, Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses, by RBC-Ukraine.

India – one of the most powerful nations in the modern world, is already competing with the USA and China in certain sectors. In terms of economic growth and population dynamics, it is even outpacing them. It is no surprise that many countries of the so-called Global South – in Asia and even in East Africa, which shares a common colonial past with India, look up to India.

Additionally, India maintains ties with Russia, although these are gradually weakening as it is not in India’s interest to be dependent on a pariah state. New Delhi is increasingly orienting itself towards Western countries. Nevertheless, in the medium term, connections with the Russian Federation will persist.

However, this does not diminish India’s importance for Ukraine. Particularly at this current stage of the war – as a potential mediator in contacts with Russia. Yet, in this regard, New Delhi's position is quite cautious. This is a reality that is unlikely to change in the near future.

"I would say that Ukraine should adhere to the so-called 'Russia plus one' strategy. This means that you have connections with Russia, and you can manage that. But you also need to be open to developing ties with Ukraine and the broader world, and perhaps stabilize the Eastern European security theater as a country striving for peace," – said Swasti Rao in her conversation with RBC-Ukraine.

Working at a leading analytical center under the aegis of India’s Ministry of Defense, Rao notes that there is also a problem in her country regarding the maintenance of Soviet-era equipment, which is still prevalent in India’s arsenal. This opens certain prospects for Ukraine. Not to mention that a significant portion of the Indian fleet is powered by gas turbine engines of Ukrainian manufacture.

A significant part of the conversation with the Indian expert at RBC-Ukraine was dedicated to the issue of Russian propaganda and countering it. Rao acknowledges that the narratives from the Russian Federation regarding the war are quite popular in the Indian information space, while also pointing out that "Ukraine is doing a wonderful job" – certainly, given the limited resources.

– Some time ago – particularly after Prime Minister Modi's visit to Kyiv in August – there was an idea that India could become a kind of 'moderator' between Ukraine and Russia. Does India want to be a moderator?

– I think what the country and its leadership have maintained from the very beginning – is that India does not wish to take sides; it wants to be on the side of peace. This is an official stance, and India is putting in significant efforts for certain mediation.

But, as you know, in the Russia-Ukraine war, any mediation will not work unless the right moment for ending the war arises. So, over the past 2-3 years, if you observe, India has made considerable efforts to establish more communications. Because today we are in a situation where we have good relations with Russia, and we have good relations with the West. And we also hope that tomorrow, when the war ends, and they will need someone to bridge that gap, India can indeed become a part of that.

And the Ukrainian side has also shown significant, I would say, gratitude for India trying to maintain its neutrality, even though India has historically had very good relations with Russia. But India has not taken sides. It states that we are committed to peace. Therefore, I believe that when the right time comes, India will make every effort to offer innovative solutions to end the war.

- We have a Chinese-Brazilian peace plan, Hungary offers its vision for peace. Even African countries had a peace plan, but not India. Why?

– India has not put forth a peace plan, but India has always stated that we primarily support the UN Charter and international law. India has not proposed a peace plan because India currently believes that if there is to be a single peace plan, both sides must agree to it. And right now, Russia has annexed four territories of Ukraine, and of course, Crimea was already annexed back in 2014, while Ukraine insists on the borders of 1991.

So, despite India adhering to international law and the UN Charter, the very reason why India has not devised a peace plan is that India believes that without a compromise agreed upon by both parties, genuine negotiations will not take place. So, that is the official reason.

But I believe that India has not devised a peace plan because no peace plan can work right now. I mean, in my opinion, there have been so many peace plans proposed. The Chinese came up with one, the Turkish side proposed another. Even now, discussions are ongoing about creating a demilitarized zone.

Everyone has a peace plan. Ultimately, it has to be acceptable to the Ukrainians. I believe that this is a war being fought on Ukrainian soil, and it must be acceptable to the Ukrainians. We await that. We are not the ones to provide a solution. I think that is what India supports.

– India has its own national interests and has previously depended on Russia, especially for arms purchases. How has the situation changed in recent years?

– Historically, India has depended on Russian arms, as our ties with Russia date back a long time. Now, what has happened: Prime Minister Modi's government has been attempting to diversify over the past several years to avoid dependence on Russia. So, this is not solely related to the Russia-Ukraine war.

We have recognized our dependence on Russia and wanted to diversify regarding other partners. COVID also taught us that dependence or excessive reliance on a single source – is detrimental. Therefore, we want to make our supply chains more resilient.

The Russia-Ukraine war accelerated this process because the Russian military-industrial complex became very focused on its military efforts in Ukraine. Secondly, Russia's export base has contracted. So, out of 31 countries before the war, Russia now exports to only 11-12 countries. And among these 11 or 12 countries, it exports a lot of arms to China, North Korea, and Iran. And, of course, India is also one of them (because we placed advance orders with Russia), and Russia is slowly providing us with this weaponry now.

At the same time, there are issues with supplies. There are issues with spare parts. You know about the well-known S-400 air defense system. In 2018, India ordered five S-400 systems from Russia. And so far, we have only received three. We are still waiting for two, which have been delayed due to the war in Ukraine.

Another reason why it makes sense for India to diversify – is that Russia is now cut off from Western technologies, and we are also exploring what Chinese components Russia is using and how Chinese information systems penetrated them. Or Chinese chips, for example, or dual-use technologies that will be in Russian systems, as this raises concerns regarding India's security.

And finally, if we look at the last five years, we have indeed been trying to diversify away from Russian arms. We are now obtaining more weapons from the USA, France, and Israel. As for Ukraine, I want to note (something that few people know) that today 130 naval vessels of the Indian Navy are equipped with Ukrainian gas turbine engines.

Most aircraft, especially Soviet ones, that we operate have gas turbine engines from Ukraine. Ukraine has modernized our transport aircraft, the An-32. Military-technical cooperation between Ukraine and India is proceeding very steadily, and this is an important point to recognize. I mean, Ukraine has also become a reliable partner, and that is something we highly value.

In fact, four military vessels, very recent military vessels, that India ordered from Russia back in 2016, two of which were to be built at the Kaliningrad shipyard, and two were to be built in India. All four have gas turbine engines from Ukraine.

After 2014, when tensions arose between Ukraine and Russia over Crimea, India imported these engines from Ukraine and sent them to Russia so they could supply us with ships.

And lastly: yes, we are also monitoring how Western sanctions are affecting the Russian military-industrial complex because over the past three years of the Russia-Ukraine war, India has not placed new orders with Russia, and that is very significant.

– Given that Russia is now in strong isolation, are there discussions in India about expanding cooperation with Ukraine?

– What is of great interest to India is the drone warfare. India is watching it very closely. Because Ukraine has been a pioneer in developing various types of drones, especially UAVs.