Academician of NAAS: Due to mild winters, Ukraine will see the emergence of exotic alternatives to potatoes.

Learn about how warm winters affect agriculture in Ukraine, whether climate changes pose a threat to the harvest of winter crops and other crops, and how the "assortment" of local vegetables and fruits may change in the near future, in this article from RBK-Ukraine.

Over the past three decades, winters in Ukraine have warmed by 1.5 degrees. January of this year broke several temperature records - at the end of the month, a temperature of 15 degrees was recorded in Chernivtsi. Overall, the weather conditions this winter were more akin to those typical of late March. The warm and snowless winter, along with the shifting seasons, directly impacts future harvests.

RBK-Ukraine interviewed Anush Balyan, Vice President of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences, about the changes in agriculture that may result from abnormally warm winters.

– How do warm winters and climate change affect agriculture in Ukraine?

– Over the past two decades, Ukrainian farmers have increasingly felt the impact of climate changes, manifested in rising temperatures, an increase in the number and duration of drought periods, and other dangerous meteorological phenomena – late frosts, ineffective downpours, gusty winds, hail, and so on.

However, the rise in annual air temperature and a slight increase in precipitation have certain advantages, despite the uneven distribution of thermal resources and atmospheric moisture throughout the year.

Global warming in Ukraine leads to shorter periods of severe frost, reduced heating costs for greenhouses, and an extended growing season, which allows for more harvests each year. It also results in the expansion of areas planted with heat-loving crops in regions where they were not previously cultivated. Another consequence of warming is the significant increase in yields of certain grain crops and their total harvests over the last 10-15 years.

Climate transformations are favorable for winter crops. This is very important because relatively warm winter weather allows plants to pass through this period almost without losses, often at higher air temperatures, even progressing to certain stages in their development, which is crucial for late-sown winter crops that begin wintering in a weak condition.

– Are there threats to the harvest from abnormally warm winters?

– The main threats, particularly for winter crops, include the risk of premature resumption of vegetation or even continuous winter vegetation. Warm winters contribute to the activation of winter crops' growth before stable warmth sets in. This makes the plants vulnerable to late spring frosts, which can destroy part of the crops or significantly reduce yields.

There is also a risk of creating moisture deficits in spring due to a lack of snow when the soil receives less moisture. This can lead to spring droughts, which are especially dangerous for early spring crops.

Warm winters may trigger the emergence of new (non-typical for the region) pests and diseases. Because the soil will not freeze, pathogens and pests that previously perished in the frost may survive in greater numbers. This increases the need for fungicide and insecticide treatments.

Moreover, careful analysis of temperature factors is now required, along with the potential for pesticide application concerning them. Modern plant protection products must function under extreme climatic conditions, including heat and drought, which will be particularly relevant for southern Ukraine.

However, at present, there is no real threat to winter grain crops. The expected slight short-term drop in air temperature (down to -10 degrees) will not have significant negative consequences. While leaf damage may occur, it does not affect yield indicators.

With the resumption of active spring vegetation at early stages, as indicated by numerous forecasts, and with good soil moisture and quality care for the crops this year, a substantial harvest can be expected, which in the best farms will not lag behind last year's results.

– Could significant warming lead to us growing new crops?

– Certainly, warming can provide opportunities for expanding the areas planted with new crops that were not previously characteristic of our regions. Warmer and milder winters, which are already present in Ukraine, along with advances in breeding for winter hardiness of garden crops, have led to the cultivation of exotic and less common crops typical of the southern regions of the country in amateur gardening. This includes, among others, almonds, pistachios, kiwis (a close relative of the more frost-resistant actinidia), persimmons, figs, and pomegranates, which have begun to be grown in the southern regions of Ukraine and Transcarpathia.

Additionally, various species and varieties of persimmons are being cultivated in the Kyiv region, while kiwi, medlar, jujube, and several other crops are gaining popularity. However, it is still premature to discuss their industrial cultivation in the forest-steppe regions of Ukraine.

Climate changes can create favorable conditions for heat-loving plants that previously could not survive in the cooler climate of Ukraine, particularly safflower, sorghum, coriander, chickpeas, and lentils. Melon crops, especially watermelons and melons, which are traditional for the Steppe, are gradually expanding their areas to the northern and western borders of Ukraine.

In the south, there will be a real opportunity to cultivate Central Asian and winter melons, which have significantly longer growing periods than European varieties. Sunflowers already dominate, but climate change may promote even greater expansion in the northern parts of the country, while cotton, in the event of further warming, could increase its cultivation in the southern regions.

Traditional main "wine" areas in Ukraine are Bessarabia and Transcarpathia. However, as the climate changes, the viticulture industry is actively moving north, with known examples of vineyards being established in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, and Kyiv regions.

Warm winters and climate changes will expand opportunities for farmers to grow new crops (illustrative photo: Getty Images)

– Which familiar crops will fade into the past?

– It is too early to talk about the disappearance of certain crops, but if the trend of increasing temperatures, changing precipitation amounts and distribution, as well as the increase in the frequency of extreme weather events continues, it could create unfavorable conditions for growing winter grain crops, rapeseed, fruit, berry crops, and so on, requiring Ukrainian farmers to adapt and rethink traditional agricultural approaches.

Weather changes provoke responses from plants, affecting both qualitative and quantitative yield indicators. The question is not whether traditional agricultural crops can withstand the frequency and intensity of adverse factors caused by weather changes.

A certain level of yield is always ensured by the best genotypes of agricultural crops. However, humans must respond to climate and weather changes by incorporating the best modern means and technologies into production, as well as the best breeding achievements, which are present in Ukraine.

– Which crops are most negatively affected by warm winters?

– Weather changes during the wintering of plants that we have observed over the past decade pose the greatest danger to those agricultural crops that easily exit a state of forced dormancy and quickly lose their winter and frost resistance under the influence of thaws.

These include winter crops (winter wheat, winter barley, winter rapeseed), perennial grasses, and fruit and berry crops (apple, pear, cherry, sweet cherry, raspberry, strawberry, apricot, peach, nectarine, etc.). Additionally, the lack of snow cover on winter crops and perennial grasses increases the risk of winter kill in the event of a sharp cold snap, while high winter temperatures may cause premature awakening of buds and subsequent frost damage to fruit trees.

Grapes, raspberries, black currants, and blueberries also require a winter dormancy period. If this period is insufficient, it can reduce yields.

Potatoes, as a temperate climate plant, can quickly degenerate under such conditions. The absence of frosts in winter does not eliminate overwintering pests and pathogens of potato diseases, leading to increased disease and pest incidence.

– What crops might we be able to grow over time if such winters continue?

– In arid regions, the areas planted with more drought-resistant crops, such as millet, sorghum, buckwheat, and so on, will increase. Among exotic and niche crops, climate changes may create conditions for growing asparagus, artichokes, sweet potatoes, ginger, turmeric, and some citrus fruits.

Traditional crops for the Steppe zone, such as winter wheat, corn, sunflowers, and rapeseed, may shift to the northern and western regions of our country. Overall, warm winters could enable the cultivation of crops with low vernalization requirements, such as certain varieties of winter peas and winter mustard.

Global warming may facilitate the spread of new vegetable crops to more northern areas of Ukraine, which were recently grown only in southern regions, such as sweet potatoes and physalis, which can withstand heat and produce high yields.

New vegetable crops may soon include yams – an exotic alternative to potatoes, and okra – a heat-loving crop popular in Asia and Africa, which thrives in high-temperature conditions.

– How