Vladimir Yelchenko: Russia will undoubtedly deceive the US, and we will witness a very different Trump.
On Donald Trump’s warm relationship with Vladimir Putin, the American president's grievances against Ukraine, and the potential for a Third World War stemming from Trump's desire to divide the world into spheres of influence – former Ukrainian ambassador to the U.S. and Russia, as well as a long-time representative of Ukraine at the UN, Volodymyr Yelchenko, shared insights in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.
Main topics of discussion:
- On Trump’s warm relationship with Russia
- On Trump's grievances against Ukraine
- On the U.S. president’s desire to "reshape" the world
Volodymyr Yelchenko is a prominent figure in Ukrainian diplomacy. He is personally acquainted with both Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Yelchenko served as Ukraine's ambassador to Russia from 2010 to 2015 and as ambassador to the United States from 2019 to 2021. He was also Ukraine's permanent representative to the UN from 1997 to 2001 and from 2015 to 2019.
In his interview with RBC-Ukraine, Volodymyr Yelchenko discussed what could save Ukrainian-American relations, what attracted Trump to Putin, and how the "honeymoon" period between Russia and the U.S. might end. He also talked about when the current world order, established after World War II, came to an end, why the UN might soon collapse on its own, and whether Trump aspires to become the first dictator in U.S. history.
You can watch the full interview on the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel; below in the text are the key points from the conversation.
On Trump’s warm relationship with Russia
Just a month after Donald Trump’s second inauguration, the United States made the most significant shift in foreign policy in recent generations. Now, representatives of the White House do not recognize Russia as an aggressor, openly criticize Europe, threaten Canada, and vote in the UN alongside Russia, North Korea, Belarus, Sudan, Eritrea, Equatorial Guinea, Mali, Nicaragua, and Niger. Volodymyr Yelchenko states that we can only hope this is not a permanent change in the course of the United States.
"I think and sincerely hope that this is a large strategic-diplomatic game. Although I don’t believe that Trump personally devised all of this, his experience as a successful businessman and billionaire, combined with the power he has acquired, and the experience from his previous term, gives him all the opportunities and grounds to initiate such a game. On the other hand, we shouldn’t exaggerate his personal qualities, because it is not that he changes his opinion every day, every hour, or every 15 minutes. It depends on who he has just met and talked to. But as an experienced person, he is capable of analyzing everything. And it seems to me that after some time, possibly in a few weeks, we will see a completely different Donald Trump. I don’t know Trump very well personally, but I presented him with credentials as an ambassador in Washington, and I had met him several times before, discussing various topics, and I did not get the impression of Trump that we see today. He does have certain sympathies, some positive feelings towards Ukraine."
On the other hand, Yelchenko continues, Trump only swings to extremes when he talks about Ukraine. He speaks positively about Russia and Putin.
"Honestly, this surprises me the most, although he is consistent in this regard. Because I have never heard anything particularly bad about Putin from him, neither today, nor a week ago, nor 10 years ago. There is a certain mystery in this. But if we recall his warm relations even with Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, perhaps he has something in common, I don’t want to say, with dictators. But he does have a certain sympathy for such unconventional people; for us, they are negative, but perhaps not for him."
Trump himself characterizes his relationship with Putin as "very good." Although they have only officially met a couple of times.
"Everyone knows about his meeting during his previous term in Helsinki with Putin. And that historical phrase when he came out of the meeting and said that he trusts Putin more than his own intelligence services. This caused a wave of anger and misunderstanding in America. We do not know anything more, but we know more about Putin. And Putin, as a product of the intelligence services, is quite a good product; he has experience in recruiting people and getting into their souls. I think he found some pathways to Trump’s soul. Perhaps this relates to the period when Trump did not get re-elected and lost to Biden."
Volodymyr Yelchenko suggests that Putin might have successfully played on Trump's image due to his failure to be re-elected for a second presidential term in 2020. Donald Trump never acknowledged his defeat, and the Russians may have supported this confidence. On the other hand, there is another version of Trump’s loyal attitude towards Russia. During the 2016 election campaign, media, primarily American, reported that Russians were financing Trump’s campaign, and indeed, there was a significant invasion of Russian bot farms and their interference in the elections.
"That would be quite a conspiracy theory in all capital letters. Frankly, I don’t believe it. Yes, there were various rumors that when Trump first went to Russia in 1987, he was 'put under a dome,' that he was being watched, and that the Russian intelligence services maintained relations with him afterwards. To assert this, one must have evidence. I don’t have such evidence, and no one has such testimony. Therefore, we can talk about anything, but it seems to me that it is a bit unserious to consider that the president of the United States could be a Russian agent."
However, Yelchenko is confident that the period of friendship between the United States and Russia will not last long.
"After Putin 'betrays' Trump, which is bound to happen, because I know how Russian diplomacy works, and the Russian establishment in general, they will not withstand this honeymoon and will definitely set Trump up somewhere. Either they will completely refuse everything they promised him in Saudi Arabia, or they will simply start violating the agreements that will be made between Russia and the U.S. And then we will see a completely different Trump, angry, cynical, and I think that here, as they say, it will not be pleasant."
On Trump's grievances against Ukraine
Speaking about Trump's relations with the Ukrainian elite, Yelchenko says it is important to acknowledge that our politicians made certain mistakes in communicating with him. The first was that during the election campaign, Ukraine openly sided with the Democrats, while failing to maintain the necessary level of communication with the Republicans. On the other hand, Trump has a personal grievance against Ukraine that has persisted for many years.
"No matter what I said earlier about his sympathy for Ukraine as a state and country, at the same time, there is surely a little worm in his soul if we recall the well-known phone conversations that partially became the reason for the impeachment process."
This refers to the infamous phone call in the summer of 2019 between Trump and Zelensky, during which the American president allegedly pressured his Ukrainian counterpart to have our law enforcement agencies accuse Joe Biden and his son Hunter, who had previously worked in a Ukrainian energy company, of corruption. By doing so, Trump allegedly hoped to eliminate Joe Biden—his main competitor in the 2020 presidential elections. To ensure that Zelensky quickly accepted Trump’s demands, the White House froze $400 million in financial aid to Ukraine just an hour and a half after their phone conversation.
The transcript of this conversation was leaked to the media by American sources. Thus, Ukraine, unwittingly, found itself at the epicenter of a domestic political scandal in the U.S. Volodymyr Yelchenko became Ukraine's ambassador to the U.S. right in the midst of the impeachment hearings against Trump in Congress. He recalls that everyone understood that Ukraine did not want to be involved in this process; however, in Trump’s perception, the words "Ukraine" and "impeachment" are still closely associated.
"At that time, unlike the recent spat between our presidents – I believe that this should not have happened from either side – our government did not react to this or reacted quite intelligently, without any undue fuss. And this story, like all news, good or bad, lived for a certain time and then disappeared from the airwaves, from the news, and that was the end of it. Then COVID started, and everyone was focused solely on COVID, forgetting about that unfortunate Ukraine. But, apparently, Trump still retains that association. Ukraine and something personally bad for him."
However, Yelchenko notes, Donald Trump is who he is, and we cannot change him. We will have to work with him, so