Additionally, export activities contribute to the accumulation of international reserves, providing the National Bank of Ukraine with greater flexibility in managing currency interventions, as reported by "24tv".
According to Taras Lesovoy, head of the treasury department at Globus Bank, the last days of October will offer a clearer picture of inflation dynamics and the direction of the currency market for the remainder of 2024.
He anticipates that by October 31, the dollar exchange rate will likely stabilize within the range of 41.3–41.5 UAH. This would indicate a gradual increase of about 1% in September and October, which is considered acceptable under current conditions.
Although inflation is expected to rise by approximately 2–2.5% during the same period, Lesovoy forecasts that annual inflation may reach 8.3–8.5% in 2024.
Timely interventions by the NBU keep exchange rate fluctuations under control, leading to gradual rather than sharp changes. This approach ensures that inflationary pressure does not significantly impact the currency market, while the regulator maintains a moderate upward trend as necessary, effectively managing supply and demand.
In the upcoming week, fluctuations in currency rates are expected to remain moderate. On the interbank market, the dollar will likely trade within the range of 41.1 to 41.5 UAH, while the euro will fluctuate between 45 and 47 UAH. On the cash market, the dollar is expected to remain in the range of 41.2 to 41.7 UAH, and the euro between 45 and 47.5 UAH.
Daily currency movements:
On the interbank market: fluctuations up to 0.1–0.2 UAH.
In commercial banks: fluctuations up to 0.3–0.5 UAH.
In exchange offices: differences up to 0.5 UAH.
The difference between exchange rates in the interbank and cash markets is expected to remain within 0.3–0.5 UAH. Currency rates may fluctuate up to 2% over the week compared to their initial levels.