It is anticipated that sunflower yields in 2024 will decrease by 7-12% compared to the previous year, leading to a significant reduction in production volumes. As a result, experts expect that prices for sunflower oil will rise on both the global market and in Ukrainian supermarkets.
From May to September 2024, the price of refined sunflower oil has already increased by approximately 2.5 UAH per liter, and experts predict that this upward trend will continue.
The decline in sunflower yields will negatively impact processing enterprises, which will have to purchase raw materials at higher prices, resulting in a substantial decrease in profits for these companies. While farmers may benefit from higher sunflower prices, processing enterprises are expected to experience a significant drop in revenues.
“Yes, this is good for agricultural producers and farmers, but for processing enterprises, there will be no profits. Considering logistics and processing costs: the income will be 3-8 dollars per ton of oil, whereas last year it was 15-50 dollars. Such meager profits have never been seen before,” warns expert Leonid Kozachenko.
Analysts looking ahead to 2025 note that several factors will influence sunflower oil prices, including yield, weather conditions, energy costs, external market demand, the state of the Ukrainian economy, and the ongoing war.
The "UkrOliaprom" Association also forecasts that total oilseed production in Ukraine will decrease by 5-10%, with sunflower production falling by 7-12% and rapeseed by 11%.
Given these developments, it may be wise for consumers to stock up on sunflower oil in the near future, as prices are expected to continue rising.