General Havryliuk: The recruitment volumes for the military in Ukraine and Russia are not comparable.

People and weapons are the key components of war, says First Deputy Minister of Defense Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk. According to him, Russia has a numerical advantage in both areas. However, in certain aspects, Ukraine is already managing to narrow the gap.

In a blitz interview with RBK-Ukraine, Havryliuk discussed Ukrainian production of ammunition, drones, and long-range weapons, as well as the comparison of resources between Russia and Ukraine in the war.

– Can you tell us about the current situation regarding the supply and provision of ammunition to the troops?

– As of today, the supply of ammunition and, in general, all means of destruction to the Defense Forces comes from three sources. The first is the domestic production of weapons and ammunition. The second is the import of those types that are not produced in Ukraine or are produced in insufficient quantities. The third source is the receipt of material and military assistance from partners.

The provision of ammunition can be assessed as follows. For example, regarding artillery shells, at the beginning of the year, the ratio of shots (between Ukrainian and occupying forces, - ed.) was 1 to 7, 1 to 8, or even more in some months. By the beginning of summer, this ratio was 1 to 3. Currently, it stands at approximately 1 to 2.

The successful strikes by the Defense Forces on Russian ammunition depots have also played a role in this.

Russians essentially have no restrictions on the use of artillery ammunition. They expend a colossal amount of shells, tanks, and soldiers. However, the quantitative ratio of ammunition, particularly artillery shells, is not the only important factor. The training of crews, their combat experience, and the tactical and technical characteristics of artillery systems have a significant impact on the outcome. Western systems are more accurate and have longer ranges. This allows us to destroy targets while expending fewer shells.

– What portion of ammunition do we produce independently? Which types are we already able to produce?

– Our defense industry currently produces almost the entire range of ammunition used by the Defense Forces. However, the quantity of production for some types is not sufficient considering the needs of the Armed Forces. I am not authorized to disclose detailed information on this.

– You also mentioned the assistance we receive from partners – the transfer of supplies free of charge. One of the well-known European initiatives is the so-called Czech initiative. What is the status of that? Is there progress?

– There has been progress. We are grateful to the government of the Czech Republic for this initiative, as they have organized a number of European countries to attract funds, conduct searches, and procure the types of ammunition that we currently need – primarily 155mm caliber ammunition. As of today, all supplies are proceeding according to plan and in full volume. There was a slight delay at the beginning of summer, but everything has now stabilized and is on schedule. The Czech government is also assisting us outside of the Czech initiative with artillery ammunition of other calibers.

– Can you share any details regarding our production of long-range weaponry?

– In order to expand the capabilities of Ukrainian defenders in the air and on land and to increase our firepower, we are currently working on several important projects. A significant amount of work is being done by teams from various ministries, agencies, scientific institutions, and our enterprises – both private and state-owned – to accelerate the creation of long-range means of destruction. Additionally, we are working to scale these resources to sufficiently reduce the resource advantage of the Russian Federation and limit its military's ability to conduct armed aggression against the Defense Forces of Ukraine.

Let me reiterate, many developments are currently being refined and tested, and most of them are successful. The details regarding specific long-range weapons and their names are classified information.

– When we talk about long-range weapons and developments, is it only about long-range drones, or does it also include missiles?

– Yes, it includes various types of missiles.

– Regarding drones, what are our successes, production volumes, and do these volumes correlate with Russian production?

– Our production has made significant strides in creating unmanned systems, particularly in unmanned aviation, both short-range and long-range.

Additionally, this year has seen considerable advancements in the development of ground robotic complexes and surface complexes. In total, over 900 new models of weapons and military equipment have been codified and approved for use by the Defense Forces over the nine months of 2024.

Since February 2022, more than 200 unmanned aerial complexes (UACs) of various types and purposes have been delivered to the troops, along with over 40 domestically produced ground robotic complexes (GRCs). Most of these have been delivered in 2024. In the first nine months of this year, 140 UACs and 33 GRCs have been approved for use.

– Former Minister for Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin mentioned last year that Ukraine plans to produce a million FPV drones, over 10,000 strike drones with a medium range, and more than a thousand drones with a range of over a thousand kilometers in 2024. Nine months have passed. What have we managed to achieve or exceed from this plan?

– We have managed to exceed almost all of those targets. I won’t disclose specific figures. However, all metrics in this direction have been surpassed. This is due to the creation of favorable conditions for the development of Ukraine's defense industry in this area. The Cabinet of Ministers has established conditions that have facilitated the expansion of production, scaling, and the establishment of a large number of private enterprises.

– Am I correct in understanding that the lion's share of drone production is now in the private sector rather than in state enterprises?

– Yes, that is true, as the private sector is more efficient. It faces fewer barriers to development and is more motivated to accelerate the growth of its enterprise. Private businesses have always been, are, and I believe will continue to be more effective than state enterprises. The state sector remains, so to speak, cumbersome.

– I have heard this information before, but I would like to confirm with you – that in certain types of unmanned systems, Ukraine is already surpassing Russia in production volume.

– Ukraine was the first to begin mass deployment of unmanned systems on the battlefield. We have an advantage in certain types. However, Russia is quickly analyzing the lessons of the war and ramping up its production, receiving many weapons from abroad.
We understand the population sizes of Ukraine and the Russian Federation. We comprehend the defense budgets allocated by Ukraine and Russia. Most importantly, we are well aware of the vast amount of oil dollars flowing into Russia each month. We do not have such opportunities.

Moreover, for over two years and eight months, the Ukrainian economy has been suffering from bombings almost every night. For example, in September, we had not a single night without "Shahed" attacks. In September, the enemy launched an average of 44 "Shaheds" daily to strike Ukrainian territory. These attacks target all our critical infrastructure, industrial sites, and energy facilities essential for the economy. The economy, in turn, affects the state’s ability to function.

– How can we then estimate their approximate production of "Shaheds" per month?

– It involves not only their own production but also assistance from Iran and North Korea. This includes not only unmanned systems but also ballistic missiles and artillery ammunition.

– Does our military and political leadership have facts or evidence that Iran has indeed supplied Russia with ballistic missiles, as there has been confusion in the information space for a long time?

– We have confirmation regarding North Korean KN-23 missiles; we have found remnants and studied this missile. Therefore, I can say with 100% certainty that North Korean missiles have been used against our territory.

– Is it correct to say that the Ukrainian-Russian war is gradually transforming from a war of tanks and artillery into a war of drones?

– Technologies are changing the course of war. Technological superiority is a real chance to alter the situation on the front in our favor. The role of drones in warfare will increase. However, they cannot fully replace missile troops and artillery, at least not yet, except partially in executing certain tasks. Drones enhance and adjust artillery, making fire more precise and reducing ammunition expenditure. The role of missile troops and artillery remains very important.

Russians are advancing precisely due to the high intensity of artillery fire, MLRS, and aviation. I would note that electronic warfare systems do not affect artillery. The effectiveness of combat task execution depends on the comprehensive use of the entire spectrum of weaponry: artillery, drones, armored vehicles, MLRS, electronic warfare, and the professionalism of personnel.

– How have the Russians managed to advance on multiple fronts simultaneously without any operational pauses