Demographer Alexander Gladun: We must acknowledge that after the war, our country's population will be 30 million.

The decline in birth rates, mass emigration from the country, and deaths from enemy shelling – the exact scale of these issues in Ukraine due to the large-scale war is still not fully known. The return of refugees from abroad, the actual population count in the country, and what the demographic strategy should be – in an interview for RBC-Ukraine.

Ukraine has never witnessed such a rapid decrease in its population throughout its independence. Approximately 5 million Ukrainians have left the country, according to various estimates. Surveys indicate that the number of those wishing to return home is dwindling.

For many, the end of the war will not necessarily mean a return. About a third of students in different regions of Ukraine express a desire to study abroad after finishing school. Additionally, when borders are fully reopened, some men may choose to leave the country, for instance, to reunite with wives and children who have already adapted to their new environment.

Something is amiss in the country if people were leaving even before the war, and the birth rate is also concerning, believes Alexander Gladun, Doctor of Economic Sciences and Deputy Director of the Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. What will motivate people to return home, how significant our birth rate issues are, and when a population census can be conducted – read more.

– According to new data from the UN, since the onset of the large-scale war, Ukraine's population has decreased by 10 million people, or about a quarter. This is all due to the outflow of refugees, a decline in birth rates, and casualties from the war. How do you assess these figures?

– When we discuss population numbers, we need to consider the date and territory for which this estimate is provided. There are many different estimates currently, and each expresses its own position, including those from the UN and other organizations.

When the full-scale invasion began, at the start of 2023, we made our assessment of Ukraine's population as of January 1, 2022. This was necessary because even before the war, there were certain accounting issues, and we had not conducted a population census in a long time. We needed to reassess how many people were actually in Ukraine. We conducted this analysis within the borders of 1991: counting including ORDLO and Crimea. Based on our estimates, at that time, there were slightly over 42 million people in Ukraine.

As of January 1 of this year, we estimate the population in the territory of Ukraine to be slightly over 35 million. This is within the borders of 1991. If we exclude the occupied territories, it could be around 28-30 million people. We do not know the real situation in the territories not controlled by Ukraine, so estimates can vary significantly. However, the trend is undoubtedly that the population has significantly decreased. Plus, during the war, it is unlikely that normal methodological principles of demographic statistics can be applied.

What does it mean that the population has decreased? There are fewer people physically present in the country. But the question arises whether we should account for our refugees who have left the country by the millions. Methodologically, if a person is absent from the country for more than a year, they can be removed from the count. But we understand that we have an unusual situation. People are currently there, but they may return. Therefore, we should now talk about the population present in Ukraine at specific dates and within certain borders.

– The UN also states that the direct impact of migration has been most acutely felt in regions that have practically depopulated. There are villages "where only elderly people remain, and couples who cannot start families." Besides Donetsk and Luhansk, where is the population outflow most pronounced?

– Again, what does the UN mean by the word "regions"? Is it an area or a district? We see what the Russians are doing to our cities and villages along the front line. They are simply erasing them from the face of the earth. Many settlements no longer exist. Our government initially encourages people to evacuate. When there is a severe danger, forced evacuations are also implemented. Those who want to stay can do so. Therefore, these areas, especially after the Russian army's offensive began, are indeed depopulated; there is no one there. It is simply unsafe to be there.

In the occupied territories, the Russians are implementing a policy of changing the demographic, ethnic, and social composition of the population. Our citizens have left, some have been deported to Russia. Many are simply killed because Ukrainians do not agree with the occupation. And instead of these people, they bring in their own citizens.

3Photo: Russia is demographically destroying us by killing and deporting people, – Alexander Gladun

Recently, I heard data regarding Mariupol. The number of people living in the city before the full-scale invasion has dropped to 70-80 thousand, and the same number has been brought in from Russia. This is aside from Russian military personnel stationed there. It turns out that there are now more Russian citizens there than Ukrainian citizens. This means that Russia is actively pursuing a policy of first military, and then demographic, capture of the territory.

And how does the UN account for the Russians transported to the occupied territories? Perhaps they have their own methodology. The thing is, international organizations operate on both sides of the front line. It is possible that the UN receives some information from the Russians. I do not know this for certain.

– I understand that discussing a population census is not feasible for a certain period and after the war?

– Currently, a census cannot take place because it is impossible to organize, and it is also impractical. First of all, how would it be conducted along the demarcation line? How would it happen during alerts and bombings? Especially in those cities that are quite populous, like Sumy, Kharkiv, Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson. It is physically impossible to conduct a census there; it is unsafe.

Secondly, from a methodological standpoint, after the war ends, we will need to wait a year or two for migration processes to stabilize. In a year, it will be more or less clear how many people will return from abroad. Then we can determine how many of our displaced persons to include in the population count in Ukraine. There are even methodological guidelines from the UN stating that a population census should be conducted during periods of minimal migration activity. Therefore, we will have to wait.

It is unlikely to happen sooner because conducting a population census is one of the most complex organizational procedures among all state-level undertakings. Conducting a census is more challenging than elections. During elections, people come to the polling station on their own. But in a census, we physically have to reach out to each person. Some may not want to open the door, and others may not be home. But we need to cover the entire country. In elections, individuals aged 18 and older participate. In a census, everyone must be accounted for – from newborns to the elderly.

– Could a census be conducted through "Dii" or any other digital format?

– I believe that this is unrealistic and impractical because we would end up with distorted data. Many may not know, but a population census is not just about counting people and where they are located in the country. It also involves household composition, ethnic characteristics, language, employment, and migration activity.

Officially, the UN refers to this process as a census of housing conditions. This is because it involves creating characteristics for each building, recording living space, total area, whether there is central water supply or autonomous systems, heating, gas, and electricity. The year the housing was built is also recorded. Family composition is then compared with the conditions in which families live. A census is essentially a snapshot of the state of society.

If we simply talk about population numbers and composition, then "Dii" is incomplete. The demographic registry is also filled out only about 60%. And how do we find out other characteristics? For instance, we cannot determine family composition from the registries or "Dii." Yes, it could be a tool, but a supplementary one. How do we know what language a person speaks if they do not have "Dii," or what nationality they identify with?

There was an initiative by Dubilet (Dmytro Dubilet was the Minister of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine from August 2019 to March 2020 – ed.). Essentially, it derailed the "normal" census. I believe he should have been held at least administratively accountable. Because in 2019, the State Statistics Service had already conducted a test census. They were working on methodology, the conduct of the census, and data processing.

After the elections to the Verkhovna Rada in 2019, new ministers came to the government, each taking on promises they were obliged to fulfill within a year. Dubilet likely took on the task of derailing the census. He claimed it was too lengthy and very expensive. And in the end, it was conducted the way it was (according to the electronic